Leaked poll shows Strimling would beat Brennan in mayoral race rematch

Former fellow state lawmakers and mayoral candidates Ethan Strimling and Michael Brennan, right, talk as they await the results of the 2011 mayoral race. Brennan would go on to win, with Strimling finishing as the runner-up. (BDN file photo by Joel Page)

Former fellow state lawmakers and mayoral candidates Ethan Strimling and Michael Brennan, right, talk as they await the results of the 2011 mayoral race. Brennan would go on to win, with Strimling finishing as the runner-up. (BDN file photo by Joel Page)

WGAN radio and the Portland Press Herald have reported this morning that a private poll conducted of city residents earlier this month is showing renewed public support for Ethan Strimling, even if he says he won’t run for mayor again.

The former state senator finished as the runner-up to fellow former Democratic lawmaker Michael Brennan four years ago in Portland’s first voter-decided mayoral race since 1923. But if Strimling were to run again this time, the results may be different, these poll results indicate.

The Press Herald’s Randy Billings reported today that poll results showed, in a head-to-head matchup, Strimling would overthrow the incumbent Brennan by 8 percentage points this time around.

Of course, in Portland, which is Maine’s guinea pig for ranked choice voting, mayoral races aren’t necessarily as simple as head-to-head matchups. Voters are asked to rank their top choices for mayor in order, so if even a third candidate is thrown into the mix, that candidate’s votes get reallocated among the voters’ second choices once he or she is mathematically eliminated from the race.

(For more on how ranked choice voting works, click here.)

In 2011, there were 15 candidates for mayor in Portland, so by the end of the vote tallying, Strimling, Brennan and other Top 5 hopefuls were crossing their fingers that they were at least the second or third favorite among bottom candidates.

Cheryl Leeman (BDN file photo by Troy R. Bennett)

Cheryl Leeman (BDN file photo by Troy R. Bennett)

This time around, nobody has publicly declared interest in the post — not even Strimling or Brennan. Strimling has said he’s not interested in running again, while Brennan has yet to declare whether he’ll seek re-election.

The reason ranked choice voting matters in the conversation about the leaked poll results is that longtime city councilor Cheryl Leeman — a popular figure who for years was the only Republican, moderate or otherwise, on the council — was also considered a hypothetical candidate by pollsters.

According to the Press Herald, once Leeman’s “second choice” votes were redistributed to the other two candidates, Strimling’s advantage dropped down to just 4 percentage points, a figure within the poll’s 4.3 margin of error.

(The poll didn’t consider a threeway race, per se, but under a hypothetical scenario in which Strimling finished third, this second choice votes combined with Brennan’s first choice votes gave the incumbent a strong 14-point advantage over Leeman — who is the only one of the three to actually hint interest in a run.)

Some notes about this poll, before I go too much further: It was conducted by the reputable Public Policy Polling and commissioned by an undisclosed group of businesspeople and special interest groups, according to the Press Herald. The poll was conducted from April 19-21, and surveyed 507 Portland residents.

It showed Strimling with a 59 percent favorability rating among respondents and Brennan at 55 percent, the newspaper reported.

Each of the three hypothetical candidates have denied being among the folks responsible for commissioning the poll, although the consulting firm of one admitted poll backer — businessman Bob Baldacci — worked closely with the Strimling campaign in 2011.

city hallOne should always view privately commissioned polls skeptically. They may or may not be skewed to favor their benefactors, but one thing’s for sure: If the results don’t reflect favorably upon the people who paid for them, they usually aren’t leaked to the public.

Since winning the race in 2011, Brennan has gone on to be a highly visible figure in Portland politics and government, launching a number of bold initiatives that have gained statewide attention, including the pursuit of a new citywide minimum wage, a streamlining of city permitting and a push for greater consumption of locally produced foods.

But while Brennan, who has famously clashed with conservative Republican Gov. Paul LePage, has plenty of Democratic party bona fides, he’s ironically taken some heat in Portland not only from business owners for being too liberal, but from other activists for not being liberal enough.

As a mayor seeking middle ground on sometimes difficult issues, Brennan has found himself getting attacked from both sides of the political spectrum.

Members of the city’s Green Independent Committee have said Brennan’s minimum wage proposal — which called for a $9.50 citywide minimum wage and was later reduced by a council committee to $8.75 per hour — doesn’t go far enough. The Greens are calling for a $15 per hour minimum wage, and want that extended to tipped employees like restaurant waiters, who wouldn’t be covered under Brennan’s plan.

Brennan also backed the sale of the publicly owned Congress Square to private hotel developers, a controversial move that polls showed to be unpopular and which was ultimately overturned by voters.

City councilors reportedly grumbled about Brennan’s control over their agenda priorities and a lack of clarity over the line of authority between his office and the city manager’s, and in more recent weeks, even council ally Ed Suslovic has said Portland should agree to definitively give the publicly elected mayor more power or do away with the post altogether.

While an unprecedented level of staff turnover at City Hall since 2011 can’t be blamed on Brennan, longtime Portland writer Chris Busby said the mayor deserves at least some criticism for the city’s apparent inability to hold onto department heads.

The spinning turnstile that has become the Portland government administration was particularly heartbreaking to many when the popular Sheila Hill-Christian, the city’s acting city manager and a one-time favorite to keep the job permanently, said she’s leaving to take a new position in Cincinnati.

But here’s the catch: Even with those potential public opinion blemishes on his resume, the recent poll showed Brennan with a decent 55 percent favorability rating. That’s not far behind that of Strimling, who has remained in the public eye as a political pundit, but has had the luxury of keeping his hands clean of the messy work of city government.

So what does that mean? To bring this roundabout piece to an obvious conclusion, it means a hypothetical race between Strimling and Brennan would still come down to who ran the best campaign.

Brennan has largely weathered what has been a tough stretch for Portland government and could build on his favorability ratings, trumpeting those initiatives to a largely left-wing voting base which hasn’t yet held him too accountable for the city’s troubles.

Strimling would have to work hard to tie Brennan to any perceived City Hall dysfunction and cast himself as the fresh-faced outsider who could appeal to those even left of the current mayor.

Leeman could look to lump Strimling and Brennan into the same liberal pile and say she’s an option for voters who legitimately want to see something different out of the mayor’s office, and could even have prospects of restoring the city’s relationship with the governor’s administration, to the degree locals want to see that happen.

But as of right now, talk about campaign strategies is all speculation. None of the three are actually even running for the office. Yet.

Portland City Hall (BDN file photo by Troy R. Bennett)

Portland City Hall (BDN file photo by Troy R. Bennett)

Seth Koenig

About Seth Koenig

Seth has nearly a decade of professional journalism experience and writes about the greater Portland region.